One of the questions occupying the minds of millions of Mexicans is whether MORENA, the party currently in power, will survive the 2024 elections and the conclusion of Andrés Manuel López Obrador presidential term. In general, the debate regarding AMLO’s intention to possibly seek reelection is over. Some potential candidates to take the mantle of the 4T (as the current president calls his movement) regime include Claudia Sheinbaum, Marcelo Ebrard, and Adán López. This alone indicates that the principle of no presidential reelection enshrined in Mexico’s Constitution will be maintained. Apart from these signs, no evident opposition to the current regime appears to exist. As usual, the President has the power over the first five years of his term, while the sixth and final year is typically reserved for the leading candidate in the upcoming election. President López Obrador proposed a radical change to the country, and some feared such change would establish a left wing regime affiliated with Latin-American movements such as the ones in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba which limit freedom of the press, respect for human rights and generally establish a totalitarian, state-controlled, economic regime. For now, the most obvious signs are of a populist government that proposes policies to address social inequality, but the constitutional order has not been broken. This is also true in areas such as the separation of powers and maintaining a free market economic system, notwithstanding worrying signals coming from the current administration’s energy policies. Further, there have been no major ruptures with the United States, which could have damaging effects for Mexico; on the contrary, the Mexican government has a good bilateral relationship with the U.S., as shown in its support to sign the United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement (USMCA) that succeeded the NAFTA. Thus far, the government has followed and respected the Mexican Supreme Court’s rulings, even if such were contrary to its interests. Only time will tell if the 4T movement is here to stay, which will depend largely on the successor to president López Obrador, which will be decided when Mexicans vote in 2024 to chart the future course of their country.
